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AstroCycle Analysis of 7/16/10

1已有 4009 次阅读  2010-07-18 15:00
AstroCycle Analysis of 7/16/10  
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Summary
Last week I expected the SPX to peak near 1080-1100 by Tuesday and pull back to 1040-50 by Friday but we were late peaking and only reached 1065. This week I expect the SPX to reach the February lows near 1040 by Wednesday and probably retest 1040 or even drop to the 1000 level by the Full Moon Friday-Monday if the rebound from 1040 is weak. Plan B has the SPX holding the 1060 area and heading back up to 1100 by Friday.

The SPX is bearish below 1070 on Monday
The SPX turned down hard on Friday morning for the overdue 3 week cycle high despite the good news from BP and Goldman Sachs which seems very bearish since it means few buyers were waiting for the well to be capped. The top Tick lines are on a 16 hour cycle that suggests a low on Monday morning and a high Tuesday near Noon and we are likely to trade in a range between 1060-70 on Monday. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines are turning bearish and trending sharply and close enough together to make the next possible short term change of trend easier to detect. The bottom blue PPO line made a second new low last Friday turning the trend bearish and putting us in a possible Wave 3 down and suggesting another Wave 5 new low after a rebound early this week.
See the chart here

Next 16 day or 3 week cycle low on Monday the 26th for the Full Moon
The last moves have been 8 days long or so starting with the rally into the Summer Solstice of June 21st, then the decline of 8 days into July 1st, and now the rally of 8 days into 1100 on Wednesday suggesting a probable low on Monday the 26th for the Full Moon of the 25th. The top Tick lines are getting oversold enough to suggest a rebound early this week and the February lows near 1040 would be a likely place for a low but the 3 week cycle and the normally bearish Full Moon suggests a lower low on Friday and/or next Monday and the 1000 area is also possible. The lower white Trin line is spiking suggesting a short term low soon but the Put/Call lines are not climbing very much and we should at least reach 1040. The bottom blue PPO line has now made in its second lower high and low suggesting lower prices until we see some Price - PPO divergence which often precedes changes in trend like we saw at the previous high and low.
See the chart here

Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Short Term Breadth is Bearish (-4)
Medium Term Breadth is Neutral (+1)
Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-3)

Daily BSI is Bearish since July 16-10
Weekly BSI is Neutral since July 07-10
Yearly BSI in a Bear Market since January 4-08
but came close to a Bull Market




SPX is turning bearish for week ending with the Full Moon of July 25th
The SPX held above the expanding wedge until Friday and probably started a decline to the 1040 and/or 1000 level by the expected 3 week cycle low of Friday the 23rd for the usually bearish Full Moon of the 25th. The top Tick lines are turning down from a whole week in overbought above the trend line and will most likely fall to the lower trend line joining the last two lows of late June and that suggests a test of the February lows near 1040 and probably lower. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines are both turning higher from overbought levels seen at previous highs since the May 6th flash crash suggesting this move down could make new lows if it lasts until the Full Moon of the 25th. The bottom blue PPO line turned down after making a slightly higher high and slightly higher low on July 1st and will need to make a lower low than July 1st to show the acceleration needed for a Wave 3 down into the Fall. Full Moon lows can come within three days either side of the Moon so a low 3 days before on Wednesday for the 13 day cycle low is probable, and a retest or a lower low for the Full Moon Friday is also possible.
See the chart here

Outlook is mixed to bearish heading into August
The SPX failed to break above 1100 as the Moon Fractal with November 08 suggested and dropped below the expanding wedge near 1080 which now leaves the February lows near 1040 as the last stop before a decline to 1000 and even 777 starts into Fall. The top blue Tick line stayed in overbought despite the decline and the new lows of July 1st and is in a position to give us a much longer and deeper decline when it eventually heads lower. The lower red Trin line is now bearish and only 2/3 of the way into oversold making a test of the February lows near 1040 likely, but the Put/Call line is breaking below support and must reverse higher quickly to signal a false break and support a break below 1040. The bottom blue PPO line turned down and left a slightly lower high but it will need to make a lower low than the July 1st low to confirm a Wave 3 acceleration into the Fall and that means a break of 1000. The most likely count is bearish and implies we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means we should have a fairly large counter trend rally into July. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started from 1,000 and will probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010.
See the chart here

We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm it. We had a series of 4 month lows starting with March 08 but the expected March 2010 low came one month early on February 5th and the indicators are now closer to a 3 month cycle suggesting weakness into the Fall. The top blue Tick line and the lower blue Call/Put line have turned up from the June 8th low in a bullish way but the lower red inverted Trin line has climbed all the way into very overbought already suggesting a failed rally is probable. The top red McClellan Summation line is making a possible bullish double bottom in the Bear zone, and it will take new lows in the McClellan to signal a move to the SPX 800 area. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in April and July 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929.
See the chart here

Moon, Cycles and More

New Moon high follows Fractal from November 08 but indicators are still overbought
The New Moon high came in a bit late and the pull back predicted from the Moon Fractal with November 08 and the rare high reading in the 35 day Trin showed last week only showed up on Friday and did not quite reach 1050. New Moon rebounds can be very sharp and short lived as seen with the New Moon of last May 13th on the chart below, or on November 28, 08 which is shown in the Moon Fractal charts on the right, but the indicators are still high and overbought and the decline may continue into Wednesday the 21st and/or Friday the 23rd for the 2 and 3 week cycle lows and the Fractal with November 08 may stop working.

See a
larger Moon chart here



A few Wave counts are possible and shown below with possible 13 day cycle turns
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The expected 3 year cycle of August-September is upon us and looks to be a low
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The Geometry and PI which made April 26,10 significant points to a September low
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The next 4 year cycle low is due near September 2010
The next 3,142 days or 8.6 year PI cycle low is due in June 2011
The 10 year cycle of highs in 87, 97, 07 and lows of 82, 92, 02 is due in 2012
The 40 year cycle of highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014
The 292 year cycle of British defeat by David in 1136 and by Joan of Arc in 1428
was followed by the 1720 South Sea Bubble crash and is next due in the Fall of 2012
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Market Breadth


Short Term Breadth is Bearish (-4)

The top Ticks turned bearish from an overbought period and could drop a lot more
The lower Put/Call and white Trin are turning bearish from levels like in mid June
The PPO and StochRSI are turning bearish and are still far from oversold
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The New Highs and Lows with Ratio are turning bearish near a cycle date
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The Up and Down Volume are turning bearish from overbought near a cycle date
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The 5 and 40 day Trin are turning bearish from very overbought levels
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Medium Term Breadth is Neutral (+1)

The top Trin line is turning bullish from very oversold levels but no lower low yet
The middle Put/Call line is turning bullish by making a lower low with room to drop
The lower Tick line is bullish but turning in overbought again
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Medium Term Breadth is Neutral (+1)

The Volatility is bullish below 29 but turning up towards a possible August 6th spike high
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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are bullish but turning down again
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Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are turning bullish from oversold
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The McClellans are bullish from a double bottom but top A/D is breaking a triangle
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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-3)

The Nyse and Nasdaq Down Volume crossed above Up volume in a bearish way
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The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are turning bearish but still strong for now
The McClellan Summation and StochRSI have both fallen below zero in the Bear zone
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The Yield Curve is very bearish but improving with the USD, but Gold remains bearish
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Equities


The SPX is bearish below 1070 on Monday
The SPX turned down hard on Friday morning for the overdue 3 week cycle high despite the good news from BP and Goldman Sachs which seems very bearish since it means few buyers were waiting for the well to be capped. The top Tick lines are on a 16 hour cycle that suggests a low on Monday morning and a high Tuesday near Noon and we are likely to trade in a range between 1060-70 on Monday. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines are turning bearish and trending sharply and close enough together to make the next possible short term change of trend easier to detect. The bottom blue PPO line made a second new low last Friday turning the trend bearish and putting us in a possible Wave 3 down and suggesting another Wave 5 new low after a rebound early this week.
See the
NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com



Next 16 day or 3 week cycle low on Monday the 26th for the Full Moon
The last moves have been 8 days long or so starting with the rally into the Summer Solstice of June 21st, then the decline of 8 days into July 1st, and now the rally of 8 days into 1100 on Wednesday suggesting a probable low on Monday the 26th for the Full Moon of the 25th. The top Tick lines are getting oversold enough to suggest a rebound early this week and the February lows near 1040 would be a likely place for a low but the 3 week cycle and the normally bearish Full Moon suggests a lower low on Friday and/or next Monday and the 1000 area is also possible. The lower white Trin line is spiking suggesting a short term low soon but the Put/Call lines are not climbing very much and we should at least reach 1040. The bottom blue PPO line has now made in its second lower high and low suggesting lower prices until we see some Price - PPO divergence which often precedes changes in trend like we saw at the previous high and low.

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com


SPX is turning bearish for week ending with the Full Moon of July 25th
The SPX held above the expanding wedge until Friday and probably started a decline to the 1040 and/or 1000 level by the expected 3 week cycle low of Friday the 23rd for the usually bearish Full Moon of the 25th. The top Tick lines are turning down from a whole week in overbought above the trend line and will most likely fall to the lower trend line joining the last two lows of late June and that suggests a test of the February lows near 1040 and probably lower. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines are both turning higher from overbought levels seen at previous highs since the May 6th flash crash suggesting this move down could make new lows if it lasts until the Full Moon of the 25th. The bottom blue PPO line turned down after making a slightly higher high and slightly higher low on July 1st and will need to make a lower low than July 1st to show the acceleration needed for a Wave 3 down into the Fall. Full Moon lows can come within three days either side of the Moon so a low 3 days before on Wednesday for the 13 day cycle low is probable, and a retest or a lower low for the Full Moon Friday is also possible.
See the
NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com


Outlook is mixed to bearish heading into August
The SPX failed to break above 1100 as the Moon Fractal with November 08 suggested and dropped below the expanding wedge near 1080 which now leaves the February lows near 1040 as the last stop before a decline to 1000 and even 777 starts into Fall. The top blue Tick line stayed in overbought despite the decline and the new lows of July 1st and is in a position to give us a much longer and deeper decline when it eventually heads lower. The lower red Trin line is now bearish and only 2/3 of the way into oversold making a test of the February lows near 1040 likely, but the Put/Call line is breaking below support and must reverse higher quickly to signal a false break and support a break below 1040. The bottom blue PPO line turned down and left a slightly lower high but it will need to make a lower low than the July 1st low to confirm a Wave 3 acceleration into the Fall and that means a break of 1000. The most likely count is bearish and implies we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means we should have a fairly large counter trend rally into July. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started from 1,000 and will probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010.
See the
Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com



We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm it. We had a series of 4 month lows starting with March 08 but the expected March 2010 low came one month early on February 5th and the indicators are now closer to a 3 month cycle suggesting weakness into the Fall. The top blue Tick line and the lower blue Call/Put line have turned up from the June 8th low in a bullish way but the lower red inverted Trin line has climbed all the way into very overbought already suggesting a failed rally is possible. The top red McClellan Summation line is making a possible bullish double bottom in the Bear zone, and it will take new lows in the McClellan to signal a move to the SPX 800 area. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in April and July 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929.
See the
Nasdaq daily chart here and the Dow daily chart here
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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Commodities


Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow like in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The CRB should pull back towards 220 into the Fall for the 10 and 24 month cycles
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The CRB should rebound to 300-20 by the 5.5 year cycle high of late 2011
The 55 year Kondratiev cycle in Commodities gave us lows in 1822, 1877, 1932, and 1987 but we have revisited the 200 level from 1986 in 1992, 1999, 2001 and even 2009 which is a sign this bullish K-Wave in Commodities into the next projected high of 1812, 1867, 1922, 1977 and 2032 should be weaker than previous ones.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Oil should decline to the 50-60 area for the 11, 24 and 20 month cycle lows
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Oil should decline to 50-60 from the 5 year cycle high of September 2010
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The Gold ETF seems to be returning to lows before the Full Moon

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courtesy of StockCharts.com



The Gold ETF is holding the 115 level and 2009 trend line for now and is unclear
Gold has probably seen the highs for a few months, but there is an 11 month cycle near July 18th which has marked lows in the past and we may see one more move up in Gold yet as long as we hold 115 and the 2009 trend line.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Gold should pull back to the 1150 level and probably 1050 by Fall-Year end
Tom O'Brien mentioned a target of 1075 on CNBC in late May and Gold will probably pull back to the 1000-50 area by September-November for the 8 and 22 month cycle lows before making new highs in 2011 for the 8 year cycle high of January 2012, but it could also go deeper and reach the previous high of 875 should there be a panic to raise cash like in November 08.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


A #1 Gold Timer Digest - Tom O'Brien calls for a top in Gold on CNBC in late May
Tom O'Brien made a call for a top in Gold on CNBC in late May and since he is #1 Gold Timer Digest we should take his warning of a pull back to 1075 seriously and he is right to be cautious. Any call for a top may be premature until we break below the 1150 level and we already saw marginal new highs since his call, plus we have two cycles of 11 months and 40 weeks due the week of July 16th suggesting a low and the 1150 level is still holding. The best fit for long term Fibonacci extensions from the 1999 low with the September 1980 and May 2006 highs of 735, the March 2008 high of 1033 and the 1980 previous all time high is suggesting 1500 by the 8 year cycle high of January 2012, even though the real end of the Gold Bull should only come with the 40 year cycle high of 2020. It is not unusual to pull back to the previous all time high near 875 before the next big move up and since we have not really done that in a clear way, it should happen in late 2010 before the last move up into January 2012.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Silver will probably pull back to the 16 area in July
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Silver should top near 20 by January 2010 for the 11-22 month cycle highs
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Gold Stocks should drop to 120-30 by Fall for the 7 and 28 month cycles
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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Gold Stocks will probably decline to the 100 level into 2011 along with the market
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Currencies


The Yen is strongest since 1950 and is probably in a multi-year Bull market
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The USD will probably decline to the 80 area by late July

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courtesy of StockCharts.com



The USD should decline to the 75-80 area s for the 15 month and 4.25 year cycles
The US Dollar turned down from the 90 area for the 4.25 year cycle high of June 2010 and will most likely pull back deeply into the 70's and even make new lows if we keep following the early 1995 + 17 = early 2012 pattern for a low.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The USD should pull back deeply as it did one 17 year cycle ago
The current period in the 17 year cycle is a lot like the early 1990's and the US Dollar could test and even breach the 70 area in 2010 if we continue to follow the pattern.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com

The Yen should rally towards the 115-123 area in 2010
The Yen pulled back sharply from the recent highs and middle channel resistance near 115, but will probably rally again in 2010 to test the highs or even reach the all time highs of 123 by mid or late 2010 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The Yen should reach 123 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high of late 2010
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The CDN Dollar should drop to the 88-90 area by the Fall for many cycle lows
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The CDN Dollar should pull back to the 77-80 area for the 16 year cycle low of 2018
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Bonds and Rates

The 30 year Bond/TLT is wedging and should turn up once more towards 130

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